Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies
Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies
1 What Is This Book About? 1
1.1 AI and Its Impact on the Societies Globally 3
1.2 Domestic Strengthening of State 9
1.3 International Strengthening of State 9
2 Introduction 13
2.1 Introduction 13
2.2 Background for the Research 17
2.2.1 Significance and Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Geopolitics 17
2.2.2 AI Surveillance—Power Concentration with State or Power Diffusion? 18
2.3 Construct of Artificial Intelligence 20
2.4 Objectives of the Research 21
2.5 Research Question 21
2.6 Formal Hypothesis 22
2.7 The Methodological Framework: Congruence Analysis 22
2.7.1 The Rationale Behind Selecting the Competing Theories 23
2.8 Establishing the Competing Assumptions of Neo-Realism and Neo-Gramscian Theories 24
2.9 Methods to Perform Congruence Analysis 25
2.10 Steps of Congruence Analysis (Blatter & Haverland, 2012, p. 189) 26
2.11 Why the US, China and India Case Studies Are Considered? 27
2.12 Congruence Analysis Tabulation 28
2.13 Scope of the Book 30
2.14 Limitations 30
3 Derivation of Neo-realism and Neo-Gramscian Theoretical Determinants 33
3.1 Construction of Neo-realism Theoretical Propositions 33
3.1.1 Defensive Realism 33
3.1.2 Offensive Realism 36
3.1.3 Theory of Trade Expectations 37
3.1.4 Offshore Balancing 38
3.1.5 Power Transition Theory 40
3.1.6 Gilpin’s Hegemonic War Theory 41
3.1.7 William Wohlforth’s Hegemonic Power 44
3.1.8 Theory of Great Power Cooperation 44
3.1.9 Neo-realism and Its Explanation Power Regarding AI Impact on Geopolitics 45
3.1.10 Theoretical Determinants of Neo-realism 46
3.2 Neo Gramscian Theory and the Impact of AI Surveillance 48
3.2.1 Introduction to Neo-Gramscian Analysis 48
3.2.2 Technology-Induced Changes—From the Perspective of Robert Cox 50
3.2.3 Operational Model to Observe Neo-Gramscian Counter Historic Block 52
3.3 Moving Forward 56
4 The Reality of the AI Surveillance and the Geopolitics 59
4.1 Analysis of the AI Investments of the US and China 59
4.2 Investments and Institutional Capabilities of the US and China 62
4.2.1 AI Penetration in Increasing in the Three Countries 65
4.2.2 AI Research and Education 65
4.3 AI Surveillance Projects by the US, China, and India 67
4.3.1 China 67
4.3.2 United States 69
4.3.3 India 72
4.4 AI Policy Analysis of the US, China, and India 73
4.4.1 AI Policy Analysis of the US 75
4.4.2 AI Policy Analysis of China 88
4.4.3 AI and Data Policy of India 103
4.4.4 Data Protection Legislation 103
4.4.5 AI Policies 106
4.5 Difference Between the US and China: AI Policy 109
4.6 US–China Trade War 111
4.7 China Bypasses the Tariffs Put By the US 115
4.8 Motivations for Private and State Actors for the Usage of AI Surveillance Systems 117
4.8.1 Motivation For the Us 117
4.8.2 Motivation For China 120
4.8.3 Motivations For India 124
4.9 Internal and External Security Spending of the US, China and India 126
4.9.1 Spending of the us on internal and external security 126
4.9.2 Security Spending of China on Internal and External Security 129
4.9.3 Security Spending of India on Internal and External Security 129
4.10 Assessing the Influence of Chinese Lobby Groups 130
5 AI Surveillance Is Becoming Pervasive 133
5.1 AI Surveillance and Hyper-Personalization 133
5.1.1 Increasing AI Investments and the Attribute of Hyper-Personalization 134
5.1.2 AI Surveillance Systems are Increasingly Used by State and Private Companies 140
5.1.3 ‘Power’ Moving away from States 142
5.1.4 Increasing Unethical Usage of AI 144
5.2 US China Competition of AI Surveillance Exports 146
5.3 AI Surveillance Growing Across the World 148
5.3.1 Analysis of Artificial Intelligence Global Surveillance Index AIGS, 2022 149
5.3.2 Analysis of Tortoise AI Index 153
5.4 Multi-Lateral Organizations and AI Surveillance 154
6 Analysis of Neorealism Theoretical Constructs in Understanding the AI Surveillance and Its Impact on the Geopolitics 157
6.1 Analysis of Neo-Realism Theoretical Determinants 157
6.1.1 NR1—Deterrence Helps in Maximizing Security (Waltz, 1981) 157
6.1.2 NR 2—Less Uncertainty With-in the Global Order Because of the Hierarchical Structure (Snyder, 2002; Waltz, 1981) 162
6.1.3 NR 3—Power Maximization Will Force States to Use AI Surveillance and Become the Hegemon (Snyder, 2002) 163
6.1.4 NR 4—States Gain Incentive Not to Wage War Because of the Trade and Its Positive Growth in the Probable Future (Copeland, 1996) 163
6.1.5 NR 5—Offshore Balancing (Mearsheimer & Stephen, 2016) 164
6.1.6 NR 6—International Order Is Hierarchical in Nature (Kugler & Organski, 1989) 164
6.1.7 NR 7—Behavioral Change Occurs Due to the Technological Developments (Gilpin, 1988) 165
6.1.8 NR 8—The Hegemon’s Sustainability Depends on the Relation Between the Military Spending and Economic Production (John Hopkins University, 2010) 166
6.1.9 NR 9—Great Power Cooperation Assert That the International Structure Would Be Stable and Peaceful With Bipolarity (Miller, 1992) 166
6.2 Conclusion 167
7 Analysis of Neo-Gramscian Approach Theoretical Determinants 171
7.1 World Order Analysis 171
7.1.1 Increase in the Competition Between the Dominant Powers 171
7.1.2 Change in the Geopolitics induces a Change in the ‘Forms of State’ (Cox, 1987) 175
7.1.3 Weakening of Global Hegemon—US 176
7.1.4 Mobilization of Social Forces into New Counter Hegemonic Historic Blocs (Cox, 1987) 177
7.1.5 Existence of Different Forms of State with Liberal and Authoritarian Systems 177
7.2 ‘Forms of State’ Analysis 178
7.2.1 Power Diffusion from the State 178
7.2.2 Observing the Change in the ‘Forms of State’ Through Judicial Changes 187
7.2.3 Ubiquity of AI Surveillance 192
7.3 ‘Social Factors’ Analysis 192
7.3.1 Hyperpersonalisation Capacity of the Political Entities 193
7.3.2 Global Reach of an Individual or a Group 196
7.3.3 Emergence of New Agencies in the Political Arena 198
7.4 Conclusion 199
8 Congruence Analysis 201
8.1 Introduction 201
8.2 Congruence Analysis Table 202
8.2.1 Explanations of the Relations Mentioned in the Box 202
8.3 Observations In-Line with Both Neo-Realism and Neo-Gramscian Theory 204
8.4 Observations In-Line with Neo-Realism and Contradicts Neo-Gramscian Theory 206
8.5 Observations Beyond the Expectations Deduced From Neo-Gramscian Theory but In-Line with Neo-Realism 207
8.6 Observations that Contradict Neo-Realism and Support Neo-Gramscian Approach 207
8.7 Observations that Contradict Neo-Realism Theory, and are Out of Scope of the Neo-Gramscian Theory 208
8.8 Observations In-Line with Neo-Gramscian Theory and Out of Scope of Neo-Realism Theory 209
8.9 Observations that Contradict Neo-Gramscian Expectations and are Beyond Neo-Realism Explanation 209
8.10 Observations that are out of Scope of Neo-Realism and Neo-Gramscian Theories 211
8.11 Schematic Diagram of the Congruence Analysis 212
8.12 Discussion on the Congruence Analysis 214
8.12.1 Is Neo-Realism Theory Able to Provide Significant Explanatory Factors that can Explain AI Surveillance Impact? 214
8.12.2 Is Neo—Gramscian Theory Capable to Provide Better Explanatory Factors in Explaining the Impact of AI Surveillance Systems? 216
8.13 Categorizing the Outcomes of the Congruence Analysis 218
8.14 Limitations of These Theories 219
8.15 Conclusion 220
9 Conclusion & Policy Recommendations 223
9.1 In A Nutshell 223
9.2 Prognosis for the World Order 225
9.3 Recommendations Derived from the Results of Congruence Analysis 229
9.3.1 Domestic Strengthening of State 229
9.3.2 International Strengthening 231
9.4 Unexplained Factors and Further Theoretical Additions 235
9.5 Final Thoughts of the Book 236
| Author | Article | Subject | Pages |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arun Teja Polcumpally | AI, Artificial intelligence, Political aspects - US - China - India, Geopolitics, International philosophy |
