SIPRI Yearbook 2025 : armaments, disarmament and international security

Part I. International security and armed conflict, 2024

1. International stability, human security and the nuclear challenge 3

DAN SMITH

I. Introduction 3

II. The state of nuclear arms control 6

III. A new nuclear arms race? 9

IV. World order 12

V. Facing the challenge 16

2. Armed conflict and conflict management 19

IAN DAVIS AND CLAUDIA PFEIFER CRUZ

I. Introduction 19

II. Global trends in armed conflicts 21

Conflict-related fatalities in

2024—Actors—Domains—Methods—Reso

urces—Impacts

III. Peace processes and peace operations 33

Peace processes in 2024—Multilateral

peace operations in 2024

IV. Conflict dynamics in the Americas 40

Gang violence in Haiti—The peace process in Colombia

V. Conflict dynamics in Asia and Oceania 43

The civil war in Myanmar

VI. Conflict dynamics in Europe 47

The Russia–Ukraine war

VII. Conflict dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa 51

The Israel–Hamas war—Israel and the

West Bank—Israel, Hezbollah and

Lebanon—Israel–Iran escalation—Israel,the Houthis and the Yemen peace

process—The fall of the Assad regime

VIII. Conflict dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa 63

The civil war in Sudan—Ethiopia—Other conflicts in East and Southern

Africa—Conflicts in Central Africa and the Great Lakes—Conflicts in the Sahel and West Africa

IX. Conclusions 74

Figure 2.1. Armed conflicts by number of estimated conflict-related deaths, 2024 20

Table 2.1. Estimated conflict-related fatalities, by region, 2018–24 22

Table 2.2. Categories of conflict-related violence, 2022–24 26

Table 2.3. Number of peace agreements, 1990–2024 34

Table 2.4. Multilateral peace operations, 2024 36

Table 2.5. Estimated conflict-related fatalities in the Americas, 2018–24 40

Table 2.6. Estimated conflict-related fatalities in Asia and Oceania, 2018–24 42

Table 2.7. Estimated conflict-related fatalities in Europe, 2018–24 46

Table 2.8. Estimated conflict-related fatalities in the Middle East and North Africa, 2018–24 52

Table 2.9. Estimated conflict-related fatalities in sub-Saharan Africa, 2018–24 62

Table 2.10. Armed conflicts active in 2024 76

Part II. Military spending and armaments, 2024

3. Military expenditure 85

DIEGO LOPES DA SILVA, NAN TIAN, XIAO LIANG, LORENZO SCARAZZATO, ZUBAIDA A.

KARIM, JADE GUIBERTEAU RICARD, FLORIAN ERDLE AND KATERYNA KUZMUK

I. Introduction 85

II. Global developments in military expenditure, 2024 86

Trends in military expenditure, 2015–24—The largest military spenders in 2024

III. Regional developments in military expenditure, 2024 91

Africa—The Americas—Asia and

Oceania—Europe—Middle East

IV. Conclusions 114

Box 3.1. The guideline military burden of members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization 90

Figure 3.1. Military expenditure by region, 2015–24 86

Figure 3.2. Changes in military expenditure, by region, subregion and globally, 2015–24 and 2023–24  94

Table 3.1. Military expenditure, the military burden and government spending priorities, by region, 2015–24 88

Table 3.2. The 15 countries with the highest military expenditure in 2024 92

Table 3.3. Components of US military expenditure, fiscal years 2020–24 98

Table 3.4. Components of China's military expenditure, 2020–24 102

4. Arms production and military services 115

LORENZO SCARAZZATO, NAN TIAN, DIEGO LOPES DA SILVA, XIAO LIANG, JADE

GUIBERTEAU RICARD, ZUBAIDA A. KARIM, FLORIAN ERDLE AND KATERYNA KUZMUK

I. Introduction 115

II. Regional and national developments in the SIPRI Top 100 North America—Europe (excluding

Russia)—The Russian Federation—Asia and Oceania—Middle East 116

III. Mergers and acquisition trends among Western arms companies and global concentration of the arms market 130

Sectoral impact—A consistent composition over the years

IV. Conclusions 134

Figure 4.1. The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index of arms revenues by country of company

headquarters, SIPRI Top 100 Arms-producing and Military Services Companies for 2002–23 134

Figure 4.2. Arms revenue shares of companies in the SIPRI Top 100 Arms-producing and Military

Services Companies, by country, 2015–23 135

Table 4.1. Trends in arms revenues of companies in the SIPRI Top 100 Arms-producing and Military Services Companies, 2014–23 116

Table 4.2. Regional and national shares of arms revenues for companies in the SIPRI Top 100 Arms-producing and Military 118

                Services Companies for 2023

5. International arms transfers 137

SIEMON T. WEZEMAN, KATARINA DJOKIC, MATHEW GEORGE, ZAIN HUSSAIN AND PIETER D. WEZEMAN

I. Introduction 137

II. Global trends in arms transfers, 2020–24 139 Why arms transfers do not always match

increasing tensions—Conflicts, tensions and arms transfers—Estimates of future arms transfers based on known orders

III. Developments among the suppliers of major arms, 2020–24 151

The United States—France—The Russian Federation—China—Germany—Italy—The

United Kingdom—Spain—Israel—South Korea—Other arms suppliers

IV. Developments among the recipients of major arms, 2020–24 161

Africa—The Americas—Asia and Oceania—Europe—The Middle East

V. Conclusions 174

Box 5.1. Definitions and methodology for SIPRI data on international arms transfers 138

Figure 5.1. The trend in international transfers of major arms, 1950–24 140

Figure 5.2. The trend in international transfers of major arms, imports by region, 1975–24 141

Table 5.1. Selected major arms on order or chosen for future orders from the 10 largest arms suppliers, for delivery after 2024 150

Table 5.2. The 25 largest suppliers of major arms and their main recipients, 2020–24 152

Table 5.3. The 10 largest suppliers of major arms and their recipients, by region, 2020–24 153

Table 5.4. Deliveries by arms category by the 10 largest suppliers of major arms, 2020–24 154

Table 5.5. The 40 largest importers of major arms and their main suppliers, 2020–24 162

Table 5.6. Imports of major arms, by region and subregion, 2015–19 and 2020–24 164

6. World nuclear forces 177

HANS M. KRISTENSEN AND MATT KORDA

I. Introduction 177

II. Nuclear weapon modernization trends 178

Nuclear arsenals being strengthened around the world—Vertical proliferation of key capabilities

III. Changing nuclear doctrines and developments in nuclear sharing 195

Russian nuclear doctrine and nuclear sharing—US nuclear doctrine and NATO

nuclear sharing—Chinese nuclear doctrine and nuclear modernization

IV. Conclusions 201

Appendix 6A. Nuclear forces, by state, January 2025 202

HANS M. KRISTENSEN AND MATT KORDA Table 6A.1. World nuclear forces, January 2025 202

Table 6A.2. United States nuclear forces, January 2025 203

Table 6A.3. Russian nuclear forces, January 2025 205

Table 6A.4. British nuclear forces, January 2025 207

Table 6A.5. French nuclear forces, January 2025 208

Table 6A.6. Chinese nuclear forces, January 2025 209

Table 6A.7. Indian nuclear forces, January 2025 210

Table 6A.8. Pakistani nuclear forces, January 2025 211

Table 6A.9. Operational North Korean forces with potential nuclear capability, January 2025 212

Table 6A.10. Israeli nuclear forces, January 2025 213

7. Proliferation and use of missiles and armed uncrewed aerial vehicles 215

KOLJA BROCKMANN AND IAN DAVIS

I. Introduction 215

II. Missile and armed UAV developments in Europe 217

Use of missiles and armed UAVs in the Russia–Ukraine war—Moving towards a build-up of missile arsenals in Europe

III. Use of missiles and armed UAVs in armed conflicts in Africa, Asia and the Middle East 219

The Middle East—Asia—Africa

IV. Transparency and confidence-building mechanisms 222

Debate on regulation of armed UAVs—The Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation

V. Conclusions 225

Table 7.1. Share of states subscribing to the Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation, by region 224

Table 7.2. The voting record for United Nations General Assembly resolutions in support of the Hague Code of Conduct against

Ballistic Missile Proliferation, 2004–24 225

Part III. Non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament, 2024

8. Nuclear disarmament, arms control, non-proliferation and security 229

WILFRED WAN, VLADISLAV CHERNAVSKIKH, TYTTI ERÄSTÖ AND VITALY FEDCHENKO

I. Introduction 229

II. Nuclear arms control involving China, Russia and the United States 230

Russia–United States arms control—China–United States engagement

III. Multilateral nuclear arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation processes 238

The second session of the preparatory committee for the 2026 Review

Conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty—The Treaty on the Prohibition of

Nuclear Weapons and the First Committee of the UN General

Assembly—Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty—Other processes

IV. Regional disarmament and non- proliferation dynamics 247

The Korean Peninsula—The Middle East

V. Nuclear safety and security during armed conflict 253

Events at Ukrainian nuclear installations in 2024—The IAEA's response to attacks on nuclear installations in Ukraine

VI. Conclusions 260

Table 8.1. Attacks on nuclear facilities in Ukraine and other significant disturbances, 2024 258

Appendix 8 A. Global stocks and production of fissile materials, 2024 262

FRIEDERIKE FRIESS, MORITZ KÜTT, ZIA MIAN AND PAVEL PODVIG; INTERNATIONAL PANEL ON FISSILE MATERIALS

Table 8 A.1. Global stocks of highly enriched uranium, 2024 264

Table 8 A.2. Global stocks of separated plutonium, 2024 266

Table 8 A.3. Significant uranium-enrichment facilities and capacity worldwide, 2024 268

Table 8A.4. Significant reprocessing facilities worldwide, 2024 270

9. Chemical weapons and security threats 273

UNA JAKOB

I. Introduction 273

II. Allegations of and reactions to chemical weapon use 274

Syria's use of chemical weapons and non-compliance with the CWC—Alleged use of

riot control agents and toxic chemicals as chemical weapons in Ukraine

III. Chemical weapon control and disarmament 279

Developments in the OPCW—Chemical weapon issues at the UN

IV. Conclusions 287

Table 9.1. Overview of ad hoc mechanisms of the Organisation for the Prohibition of

Chemical Weapons to address the issue of chemical weapons in Syria 274

10. Biological weapons and security threats 289

FILIPPA LENTZOS

I. Introduction 289

II. Biological weapon disarmament and non-proliferation 290

The working group on the strengthening of the Biological Weapons

Convention—The 2024 Meeting of States Parties—The UN General Assembly

III. Allegations of non-compliance with the Biological Weapons Convention 299

IV. Conclusions 301

11. Conventional arms control and the regulation of inhumane weapons 303

IAN DAVIS, GIOVANNA MALETTA, PIETER D. WEZEMAN AND SIEMON T. WEZEMAN

I. Introduction 303

II. The use and multilateral regulation of inhumane weapons and other conventional weapons of humanitarian concern 305

The Certain Conventional Weapons Convention—Cluster munitions—Explosive weapons in populated areas—Incendiary weapons—Landmines and improvised explosive devices—Pager and walkie-talkie attacks in Lebanon and Syria

III. Control of small arms and light weapons 319

Contentious issues at the fourth Review Conference of the UN Programme of

Action—Achievements of the fourth Review Conference of the UN Programme of Action

IV. International transparency in arms procurement and military expenditure as confidence-building measures 323

The UN Register of Conventional Arms—The UN Report on Military Expenditures—The OSCE transparency mechanisms

V. Conclusions 327

Table 11.1. Meetings of the Certain Conventional Weapons Convention in 2024 306

12. Artificial intelligence and international peace and security 329

JULES PALAYER AND LAURA BRUUN

I. Introduction 329

II. Governing the challenges presented by military artificial intelligence 330

Autonomous weapon systems—Military AI beyond autonomous weapon systems

III. Governing the challenges presented by civilian artificial intelligence 339

UN efforts towards global AI governance—AI Safety Summit

IV. Other important developments in the governance of artificial intelligence 342

EU regulation of AI—Implementation of the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure and Trustworthy AI—Chinese AI governance

V. Conclusions 345

13. Cyber and digital threats 347

ALLISON PYTLAK

I. Introduction 347

II. Cyber trends in 2024 348

Cyber operations in conflict settings—Cybercrime attacks—Cyber espionage and system

vulnerability—Electoral interference—The AI–cyber nexus

III. Global developments in cyber governance 355

The UN Convention Against Cybercrime—The open-ended working

group on ICT—The UN Pact for the Future and the Global Digital Compact—The UN

Security Council—Regional developments—‘Like-minded’ coalitions and other efforts

IV. Conclusions 366

14. Space security governance 367

NIVEDITA RAJU

I. Introduction 367

II. Concerns about a Russian nuclear anti- satellite weapon 368

Reports from US representatives—Competing resolutions at the UN Security Council

III. Multilateral discussions on space security 371

The UN group of governmental experts on PAROS—The decision to merge open- ended working groups

IV. Conclusions 377

15. Dual-use and arms trade controls 379

MARK BROMLEY, KOLJA BROCKMANN, LAURIANE HÉAU, GIOVANNA MALETTA AND PIETER D. WEZEMAN

I. Introduction 379

II. The Arms Trade Treaty 380

CSP10’s thematic focus on interagency cooperation—Consideration of arms

exports to Israel in the context of ATT obligations—Reporting

levels—Universalization—The 10th anniversary of the Arms Trade Treaty

III. Multilateral arms embargoes 386

The scope of multilateral arms embargoes in 2024—UN arms embargoes:

Developments and implementation issues—EU arms embargoes:

Developments and implementation challenges—The Global Export Control

Coalition embargo: coordination efforts and enforcement challenges

IV. The multilateral export control regimes 396

Broader challenges to the work and functioning of the regimes—The Australia

Group—The Missile Technology Control Regime—The Nuclear Suppliers

Group—The Wassenaar Arrangement

V. Developments in the European Union’s export controls 403

The EU dual-use regulation—The EU European Economic Security Strategy and

export controls—The EU common position on arms exports—FDI regulation—EU and US cooperation on export controls

VI. Conclusions 409

Figure 15.1. Number of Arms Trade Treaty states parties submitting annual reports, 2018–23 384

Table 15.1. United Nations and European Union arms embargoes in force during 2024 388

Table 15.2. The four multilateral export control regimes 396

Annexes Annex A. Arms control and disarmament agreement 413

I. Universal treaties 414

II. Regional treaties 437

III. Bilateral treaties 449 Annex B. International security 453

cooperation bodies

I. Bodies with a global focus or membership 453

II. Bodies with a regional focus or membership 463

III. Strategic trade control regimes 479

Annex C. Chronology 2024